The GOP’s worst defeat may be its best chance to move on

The 2026 midterms did more than punish Republicans. They rearranged the political fortunes of presidential hopefuls in both parties — and created some unexpected winners and losers, some…

The 2026 midterms did more than punish Republicans. They rearranged the political fortunes of presidential hopefuls in both parties — and created some unexpected winners and losers, some with consequences for 2028. Some changes were obvious on election night. Others became apparent only as the shock waves spread. The sting is sharp, but the Band-Aid is off. Losers Start with Republicans.

They entered November 3 holding the White House and both chambers of Congress, only to suffer a defeat that will shape their next two years and perhaps much longer. The biggest loser, undoubtedly, was President Donald Trump. Midterms are almost invariably referendums on the president, with his party in Congress receiving the verdict. A Republican setback was expected. Its scale was not. The defeat will hamper Trump’s final two years in office, and its consequences for his political legacy may last much longer.

The Republican Party is the second-biggest loser. What a wave took may take another wave to return. Some Republicans who deserved to lose did. Plenty who did not deserve to lose went down with them. Democrats have a chance to turn this year’s gains into an enduring congressional advantage. Republicans’ third-biggest loser is Vice President JD Vance. Before November, he seemed to have the inside track to Trump’s endorsement and, with it, the 2028 Republican nomination.

Now he is tied to a crushing Republican defeat. He left a safe Ohio Senate seat to join Trump’s ticket; on November 3, Democrat Sherrod Brown won that seat from Republican Jon Husted. Instead of launching a presidential campaign from the Senate, Vance faces two years in an administration under siege. Democrats have losers too, though they may be harder to spot amid the party’s happiness hysteria. At the top of that list is Kamala Harris.

She spent much of 2025 on the sidelines and was scarcely more prominent in the midterm campaign. Democrats have now demonstrated that they can win big without her. In fact, they did considerably better without Harris in 2026 than they did with her at the top of the ticket in 2024. California Gov. Gavin Newsom is another Democrat loser. His national profile no longer looks quite so indispensable when Democrats are winning in places far removed from California and its political baggage.