California’s next political war will be blue on blue, not red

At the risk of stating the obvious, the sky is blue, death and taxes are inevitable, and California is a very liberal state. At the risk of angering…

At the risk of stating the obvious, the sky is blue, death and taxes are inevitable, and California is a very liberal state. At the risk of angering my readers, I have even worse news: California isn’t secretly Republican. We don’t need last week’s gubernatorial election to prove my point. And the results up and down the Golden State merely buttress it. Of course, as I write, we don’t have the final results for every race.

We don’t need them, either. We have the bulk of the tally, plus the benefit of elections and public opinion polling from the past 20 years. Time flies, even when you’re losing. The voters have been telling Republicans who they are for a generation. Republicans might begin to rebuild by believing them. Xavier Becerra won roughly two-thirds of the vote against Republican Steve Hilton. The other Republican candidates for statewide office are doing about as well — or as badly.

The margin isn’t 52-48, the sort of close result that can sustain a thousand theories about stolen elections and a few million bucks’ worth of fundraising appeals. It’s about 66-34. Across the ballot. No cheating required. The grim reality for California Republicans is that they haven’t won a statewide office since 2006. In the latest registration report, Democrats make up 44.96% of the electorate, Republicans 24.69%. If a secret Republican majority exists somewhere, it has maintained extraordinary operational security.

A toxic brand Something more fundamental is going on. The Republican brand is politically radioactive in California. I don't mean merely that its candidates lose. I mean that the name itself discourages people who might agree with Republicans on taxes, crime, regulation, or any number of other issues from voting for its candidates. Polls bear this out. A June 2025 Public Policy Institute of California survey found that 70% of likely voters viewed the Republican Party unfavorably. Among independents, the figure was 73%.

A September PPIC poll found that 44% of California adults thought the Republican Party had almost no good ideas. Only 23% said the same about Democrats. These are opinions about the parties, not just candidates in a particular election. The damage didn’t begin with Donald Trump. He arrived long after it was under way. It’s hard to believe now, but California was once central to Republican national politics. Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan came out of this state. George H.W. Bush carried it in 1988.